September 21

Inductive Reasoning – Avoiding the Trap of Faulty Thinking


In our last blog post we discussed how faulty inductive reasoning can induce bad decisions that have costly consequences, both in dollars and opportunity costs.

Here is an approach to avoid falling into that trap.

First, know that inductive reasoning is normal. It’s part of our survival mechanism. Our brains are wired to project single, or limited occurrences onto a larger group of people or circumstances that seem to have similar appearances or behaviors to the one in question. 

Since you will always be tempted to act inductively, the time to get out of that trap is immediately after you have the thought, but before you take any action to either act on it or use it as a tool to guide future actions.

One effective way to approach those situations is to force yourself to shift your perspective from inductiveto deductive reasoning. In deductive reasoning you go from general assumptions/observations to specific conclusions. 

For example you might say: any employee that is addicted to video games and plays them during working hours will not be a good employee for us. John is addicted to video games; he will not be a good fit for us. Notice that the connecting arguments that provide the foundation for your decision are based on specific behaviors attributable to individuals – not groups. And there is no connection between a person’s date of birth and your basis for a decision.

This approach requires awareness and practice. But it’s worth beginning now. The costs of not doing it are too great to be ignored.

To explore more in upcoming posts, follow us at Axies Group on LinkedIn.


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Book Reviews

Mastering Your Balance

Amazon Book Reviews

D. Thurman April 7, 2021

The areas of balance required to perform as a top level organization are lifted from the almost unconscious to the very conscious in Mastering Your Balance. As a business and executive coach I see business leaders mostly consumed 95% if the time with near term issues. A perpetual game of Whack-A-Mole.

Perhaps, getting the various elements covered in the book in play and more importantly in balance these leaders would have far less moles to whack, and therefore much more time and energy available execute on their greater purpose.

Shane Willard April 21, 2021

Bill & Jason get it. Having coached thousands of businesses and business leaders their insight is invaluable. They beautifully weave Vision, Values, Culture, Strategy & Purpose together into actionable steps any leader can implement. As they say, no matter how good one is at these individual elements, without balance greatness will always lie just behind your reach.

The 'what-would-it-take' concept in Chapter 2 makes you peel back the excuses and think creatively. "To achieve the impossible you must first envision the improbable."

At its core, this book serves as a blueprint for each vital element necessary to achieve success and balance organizationally (and personally). It reminds leadership where they need to focus.

Joe Fera April 1, 2021

What would it take to shatter your limiting beliefs and lead your company to heights only dreamed? Read ‘Mastering Your Balance’. Bill & Jason have demystified the ‘Dark Matter’ of great leadership and great organizations and boiled it down to highly actionable and implementable elements. Aha moments abound!

LR March 31, 2021

Mastering Your Balance answers the question and is a must read and reread for any organization daring to go from good to great! Mastering Your Balance shines a much needed light, drawing our attention to it, causing us to remember it's significance. More than words, we are reminded that a carefully crafted mission/vision statement is the organization's North Star.

Severin Sorensen March 24, 2021

As a business coach I'm always looking for books to inspire the human mind, and give direction to business owners seeking to raise their performance in the great game of business. Mastering Your Balance is one of those books. The authors are experienced in the art of giving profound advice to their clients.